993056 
Book Reducing uncertainty : intelligence analysis and national security / Thomas Fingar.
Publication year: c2011.
Language: English
Call Number JK468.I6 F56 2011
Media class: Book
Publisher: Stanford, California : Stanford Security Studies
ISBN: 9780804775939 0804775931 9780804775946 080477594X
Extent: xii, 176 p. ; 24 cm
Description:
This book provides a description of the role of intelligence analysis in the making of national security decisions in the U.S. government. The author covers how analysts do their job, how they are affected by the political context, and why they pay more attention to warning about potential threats than to providing input that might increase the likelihood of positive developments.
Reducing uncertainty -- Myths, fears, and expectations -- Spies collect data, analysts provide insight -- Using intelligence to anticipate opportunities and shape the future -- Estimative analysis : what it is, what it isn't, and how to read it -- A tale of two estimates -- Epilogue : lessons and challenges.
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