Book A shot in the dark : the futility of long-range modernization planning / by Eric A. Hollister.
Associated Name: Institute of Land Warfare (Association of the United States Army)
Publication year: 2010.
Call Number UA23.A95 L16 no.79 ; U15 .L36 no.79
Media class: Book
Publisher: Arlington, Va. : Institute of Land Warfare, Association of the United States Army
Series title: Land warfare papers ; no. 79 ; National security affairs paper
Extent: vi, 10 p. ; 28 cm.
Shows why the utility of long-range future modernization planning should be revisited in this era of persistent conflict. According to the author, the complexities of the environments for which the Army is required to plan makes predicting the future -- and being prepared for the next war -- impossible. The author examines changes that occurred during the post-Vietnam era, includes a review of past Army futures studies and discusses the Army's most recent attempt at modernization, the Future Combat Systems program. The paper uses the National Security Strategy, the Quadrennial Defense Review and the Army Modernization Strategy to suggest a framework for future modernization and a less risky method for long-range futures studies.
Introduction -- Post-Vietnam predictions -- Predicting the future -- The cost of getting it wrong -- Recommendations -- Conclusion.
Post-Vietnam predictions -- Predicting the future -- The cost of getting it wrong -- Recommendations.